7 Scientific Reasons You Should Stop Caring About Political Polls
POLITICAL POLLS ARE LIKE A BROKEN CLOCK: But, unlike laws, polls have no tangible consequence. If Trump has a low approval rating he isn’t fined. Or flogged. Or fired. In fact, as Trump demonstrates, even if you have low poll numbers, you get to keep your job, AND strip the arts budget to the point where if Elmo wants health insurance, he’s gonna have to double the number of hand jobs he’s giving behind the 7-11.
Even worse, and more importantly: polls are routinely wrong! The night before the British went to vote on staying in the European Union or Exiting, the polls had “Stay” winning by 10%. When the votes were tallied, “Exit” won by 4%.
In the polls conducted during the run up to the 2016 Presidential Election, the results were so out outrageously out of line… Gretchen Carlson sued… and was paid 40 million in hush money.
The last time this many polls were wrong… Hitler invaded Poland.
The Problem With Polls: For our poll about Trump’s collusion with Russia, more than 1000 people responded… and Remember, 97% of them said Trump did NOT collude with Russia.
HOWEVER: Here’s what I didn’t mention about our political poll:
Everyone was a member of a pro-Trump Facebook group, like: The Trump Train… Trump’s Basket of Deplorables… Patriots Who Support Trump… and Donald Trump Gives Me An Angry Erection!
And that’s the first of MANY problem with polls: The people giving their opinion are probably NOT a representative sample of voters.
20 years ago, polling companies used computers to randomly call land line phones… in people’s homes.
Back then, more than 98% of homes had phones. So, if you randomly dial 20-thousand homes… and just 7 or 8% of people picked up – with about 1800 people surveyed, you were likely to have reached a statistically significant audience.
Today, the number of homes that don’t have a land line phone is: 53%.
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